By Edoardo Molinari
In his regular Rolex Series column for the DP World Tour, Edoardo Molinari identifies the key holes and the players to watch out for at the BMW PGA Championship.
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A three-time DP World Tour winner, the Italian has become one of golf's leading data analysts for a host of established players and will aim to help Europe to a third consecutive Ryder Cup triumph next year in his role as a Vice Captain to skipper Luke Donald.
Analysing the numbers, Molinari previews the third Rolex Series event of the season over the West Course at the Wentworth Club where the prize fund is $9million.
Looking Back: Alex Noren's victory in 2025
Eight years on from winning the inaugural Rolex Series event, Alex Noren secured his second BMW PGA Championship title with a play-off victory against Adrien Saddier.
After both players hit their second shots into the rough just shy of the water at the first extra hole, the Swede managed to pitch his ball to three feet before holing the birdie putt to claim his 12th DP World Tour title.
Victory for Noren, a Vice Captain alongside Molinari at last year's Ryder Cup at Bethpage, was his second of the DP World Tour season after becoming a two-time winner at the British Masters.
Instrumental to his success was his performance on the greens. He gained 2.35 shots per round putting, first in the field by a distance.
From seven to 23 feet, he holed nine of 13 putts from seven to 13 feet and nine of 20 from 14 to 23 feet, worth 2.1 shots per round on their own.
From tee to green he was only 0.7 shots per round better than the field: performing solid off the tee (+0.5), average around the greens (+0.3) and actually slightly below the field with his approach play (-0.15). His four rounds of 67-68-66-68 were the most consistent among those who finished in the top ten.
Saddier was the better ball striker of the two: +2.1 shots per round from tee to green (+0.95 off the tee, +0.4 approach, +0.7 short game) with +1.0 putting. The key difference between the two was Noren's mid-range putting.
Of the other closest challengers, Patrick Reed had the best tee-to-green week in the field (+3.0 shots per round) and lost 0.7 shots per round on the greens. Aaron Rai, who also finished three shots back, was the opposite profile, gaining 1.2 shots per round putting and 0.7 with his short game.
Holes to watch out for
Hole 1, 473 yards par four
• Still the toughest hole on the course: it has averaged 4.22 since 2021 with only 6% birdies against 27% bogeys or worse, and only 25% of the field finds the fairway.
• Hitting less club off the tee to try to ensure finding the fairway does not help. Since 2021 players hitting driver (297 yds on average) have found the fairway 18% of the time and scored 4.24; players hitting a fairway wood (275 yds) have found it 40% of the time and scored 4.28. The penalty for missing this fairway is the smallest of any par four on the course, about 0.2 shots, so length is worth more than position.
Hole 3, 459 yards par four
• The second hardest hole (4.20, 10% birdies, 27% bogeys or worse) and the one where the tee shot matters most on the front nine: 96% of the field hits driver, just over half find the fairway, and missing it costs 0.43 shots on average.
Hole 9, 449 yards par four
• Third hardest hole (averaging 4.16) despite a 70% fairway rate, because only 67% of the field hits the green from there. Missing the fairway is the most expensive miss of the front-nine par fours, half a shot. Club choice off the tee makes almost no difference: irons (266 yds), fairway woods (271) and drivers (278) all score within 0.05 of each other, so there is no reason to force a driver.
Hole 15, 491 yards par four
• The most important tee shot on the back nine. It plays 4.16 with 12% birdies against 24% bogeys or worse; 70% hit the fairway but only 60% hit the green, and missing the fairway costs 0.41 shots.
Hole 17, par five, 610 yards and hole 18, par five 523 yards
• The two par fives to finish have the biggest spread of scores on the course (17 more than 18). On 17, 32% birdies against 15% bogeys or worse and 5% doubles, and the tee shot has the largest influence of any shot at Wentworth. On 18, 44% birdies against 14% bogeys or worse, and here it is the second shot, with the water short and left, that has the largest spread of outcomes of any approach on the course.
In focus: A tough front nine on the West Course
Last year, six of the seven toughest holes came on the front nine with five being par fours measuring from 396 yards to 473 yards (first, third, sixth, seventh and ninth). Of those, the three hardest were the third, ninth and first.
Since 2021, the field averages 4.12 across the first, third, sixth, seventh and ninth. The players who handle them best, Aaron Rai, Viktor Hovland and Rory McIlroy, are about a shot a round better than the field on those five holes alone. Rai, Hovland and Noren hit 63 to 68% of those fairways against 54% for the field, on holes where a fairway is worth 0.4 to 0.5 shots, while McIlroy plays more aggressively and ends up 12 yards longer than the field average on those holes. The one hole where the club matters is the first, where laying up does not pay off and driver is the right play whoever you are.
Club selection is not what sets them apart. Where the club is recorded (2021-2024), Rai, Hovland, McIlroy and Noren hit driver on 47-52% of those tee shots against 55% for the field. Rai and Noren average 275 yards on those holes, the same as the field. Hovland averages 283 and McIlroy 288. The difference is where the ball finishes. Rai hits 68% of those fairways, Noren 67%, Hovland 63% and Lowry 60%, against 54% for the field, and on six, seven and nine a fairway is worth 0.4 to 0.5 shots. McIlroy is the distance case: an average fairway rate but 12 yards longer than the field, resulting in shorter approaches into small greens. Tyrrell Hatton and Harry Hall hit fewer fairways than the field on those holes and still score, which points to their approach play and short game rather than the tee shot.
Where the club does matter is at hole level. On the first, the layup does not pay (driver averages 4.24 against 4.28 for a fairway wood, and hitting a fairway there is worth only 0.2 shots). On the seventh, nobody hits driver, and a fairway wood (69% fairways, 3.97 average) does better than an iron (71%, 4.02). At the ninth, an iron (75% fairways, 4.10) scores as well as a driver (70%, 4.16), so there is nothing to gain by forcing it. Ludvig Åberg is the cautionary tale: boasting one of the best course records at Wentworth (+1.6 shots per round since 2024) but over par on these five holes (4.23), giving back part of what he gains on the par fives.
Players to watch
Since 2021, the tee shot, approach play and putting have separated the field almost equally at Wentworth, while the penalty for missing fairways and greens is higher than at most venues.
The Stars
• Rory McIlroy has the best course record in the field since 2021 (+2.4 shots per round, with +1.5 off the tee alone).
• Matt Fitzpatrick boasts the best form in the field over the last six months across models. Across five consecutive Wentworth appearances, he is +1.2 shots/round and level par on the front-nine par fours since 2021, against a field average over par.
• Tommy Fleetwood is the third highest rated player in the field, across our modelling after McIlroy and Fitzpatrick, and playing as well as anyone over the last three months. His record at this event is built on approach play (+0.6 shots per round since 2021) - a skill that matters most around the West Course.
The Outsiders
• Aaron Rai is the best player in the field on the front-nine par fours since 2021 and has gained 1.9 shots per round at Wentworth over 18 rounds. Third here last year, two shots out of the playoff. He hits 68% of the fairways on those holes against 54% for the field, without giving up any distance.
• Matt Wallace's last three months are well above his season rating in our model, and he has five years of solid Wentworth performance data. Across his last 16 rounds, he is level par on the front-nine par fours against a field average of over par.
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