By Edoardo Molinari
Ahead of the third Rolex Series event of the DP World Tour season, Edoardo Molinari identifies the key holes at Wentworth Club and the players to watch out for at the BMW PGA Championship.
An ever-present event on the DP World Tour since its inception in 1972, the prestige of winning one of European golf's most historic titles continues to draw a high-calibre international field.
As the fourth event of the Back 9 on the 2024 schedule, with increased Race to Dubai Ranking points on offer, players are presented with a big opportunity to secure their playing rights for the 2025 campaign and also advance to the season-ending DP World Tour Play-Offs.
Since moving to its late summer slot in the schedule from spring in 2019, the Surrey-based course - which has undergone renovation over the last decade - has yielded low scoring.
Analysing how Ryan Fox claimed his first Rolex Series title in 2023 and some of the other key statistics over recent editions, here's a look at three key holes and players to watch at this year's tournament.
Looking back: Ryan Fox's victory in 2023
When analysing what enabled Fox to win his fourth DP World Tour title, a few areas oof his game deserve particular recognition.
He played aggressively off the tee, his approach play from 175 to 200 yards was outstanding and his putting inside 10 feet was also the best in the field.
The New Zealander used his strength to be on average 32 yards longer than the field for all his tee shots, thus enabling him to leave some shorter clubs into the greens.
He then proceeded to gain nearly three shots on the field between his approach play and putting, while he gained another full shot on the field with his chipping from the fairway.
English duo Tyrrell Hatton and Aaron Rai were close contenders, finishing tied second, but their putting was not to the same standards as Fox.
The Fortinet Threat key holes
Hole 1
At 473 yards, the par-four first is the toughest over the last few years. The scoring average is usually around 4.28, so an opening par is a great score.
Historically there have been only 5% of birdies against 31% of bogeys or worse.
It is a daunting opening tee shot as only 25% of players hit the fairway.
There are two options off the tee: hit a driver to carry the right bunker but the ball will most likely finish in the rough on the downslope or lay up next to the bunker with a fairway wood.
Historically, hitting driver is the best option, but it depends also on the pin position and how much rough there is on the right side over the bunker.
Hole 15
This is the most important tee shot of the round, as the difference between hitting or missing the fairway is more than 0.500 shots per round.
Historically there have been only 13% of birdies against 24% of bogeys or worse.
At 491 yards, it plays well over par with a scoring average of 4.14 and while 70% of players hit the fairway off the tee, only 53% of players hit the green on this hole.
The penalty for missing the fairway on this hole is massive and there isn’t any bail out so a great tee shot is required.
Hole 18
Measuring 523 yards, this is a great finishing hole as it has the biggest variability in scores over the West Course at Wentworth.
It plays just under par with a scoring average of 4.74 and historically there have been 43% of birdies against 15% bogeys or worse, which is a very high bogey rate for a par five.
Once again, the tee shot is important but the second shot is even more so, as the water hazard looms short and left of the green.
While the second shot is the most difficult approach shot of the whole course, it is worth highlighting the Sunday pin is the easiest one as you can bail out right of the green and have a reasonably easy up and down.
Players to watch
With a course that suits accuracy off the tee and great iron players, I've taken a look at players who have a statistically good chance at performing well this week.
The Favourites
Tommy Fleetwood
The Englishman has enjoyed a solid season on the PGA TOUR, making it all the way to the Tour Championship. His accuracy off the tee improved in 2024 compared to 2023 and his iron play has always been a trademark. He’s never won at Wentworth but this could be the right time for him to shine.
Billy Horschel
Clearly has the tools to succeed once again around the West Course. He found some form again in 2024 after a poor 2023 by his standards and he is coming to Wentworth with three top 10s in his last five events, including a tied second finish at The Open.
Rory McIlroy
He can’t be overlooked. Wentworth is not the ideal course for Rory’s game, especially off the tee, but he is the highest ranked player in the field and he hasn’t finished outside the top 10 in his last four appearances at the BMW PGA Championship.
Outsiders
Matteo Manassero
For a player of his ability, it is difficult to view him as an outsider but after a resurgent 2024 he could find success once again around the West Course. His approach play is very solid and his short game is second to none. He is a proven winner and a win this week would complete an incredible comeback and seal his PGA TOUR card for 2025.
Rikuya Hoshino
The Japanese has been one of the most consistent players on the DP World Tour this season. He is the second best iron player on the DP World Tour in 2024 and he is also very accurate off the tee. His game fits the West Course to perfection.
Laurie Canter
The Englishman has enjoyed a very successful season on the DP World Tour and his game is back to where it was a few years ago, when he was one of the most promising players in Europe. His driving is world class and should he find a good week on the greens he could be very dangerous.
