As the DP World Tour season nears its climax, Rory McIlroy arrives at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship – the first event of the DP World Tour Play-Offs - well placed to win his sixth Race to Dubai crown.
With two events to be played on the schedule, the Northern Irishman appears poised to equal the late, great Seve Ballesteros’ haul of six Harry Vardon trophies.
And yet, while McIlroy holds a commanding advantage at the summit of the season-long rankings, 36 other players started the week in with a chance, albeit a faint one for many, of ending the season as the European Number One.
With that in mind, we summarise some of the main Race to Dubai permutations leading into the fourth Rolex Series event of the campaign at Yas Links, including how players can play their way into next week’s DP World Tour Championship.
Four-time Major champion McIlroy leads the Race to Dubai Rankings in Partnership with Rolex from Thriston Lawrence by 1,572.39 points, with Rasmus Højgaard a further 347.89 points adrift.
But with 1,500 Race to Dubai points on offer for the winner and 1,000 for finishing runner-up at Yas Links this week, there is scope for movement.
While there are too many permutations to list, what is certain is that both Lawrence and Højgaard need to be within 1,942.4 points of McIlroy at the end of the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship to have a chance of claiming the Race to Dubai crown.
Rory McIlroy will win the 2024 Race to Dubai today if:
· he finishes second alone
· he finishes second with one other and Lawrence finishes T4 with at least two people
· he finishes second with two others and Lawrence finishes T6 with one other
· he finishes third alone and Lawrence finishes lower than ninth on his own
· he finishes third alone and Lawrence finishes 15th alone or worse
· he finishes fourth alone and Lawrence finishes 31st alone or worse
· he finishes third alone and Lawrence finishes 11th alone or worse
· he finishes third with one other and Lawrence finishes 15th alone or worse
· he finishes fourth alone and Lawrence finishes 31st alone or worse
After that, and with the absence this week of Billy Horschel ruling him out of contention to win the season-long prize, from Tommy Fleetwood in fifth to Guido Migliozzi in 14th, each player needs a certain number of points or position to remain in contention.*
*each of the below is based on McIlroy finishing last
· Tommy Fleetwood: Needs to earn at least 541.93 points
· Matteo Manassero: Needs to earn a least 568.91 points
· Niklas Nørgaard: Needs to earn at least 580.91 points
· Jesper Svensson: Needs to earn at least 630.60 points
· Robert MacIntyre: Needs to earn 632.29 points
· Rikuya Hoshino: Needs to finish at least second alone
· Adam Scott: Needs to finish at least second alone
· Sebastian Söderberg: Needs to finish at least second alone
· Jordan Smith: Needs to finish at least second alone
· Guido Migliozzi: Needs to finish at least second alone
Below that, starting from Romain Langasque and running down to Sam Bairstow in 37th on the Rankings, each player teeing it up this week needs to win in Abu Dhabi to stay in the hunt. However, and important to note, this is also based on McIlroy finishing last in both the season-ending events.
And what about those trying to play their way into the top 50 available players for the DP World Tour Championship?
Here are the below minimum requirements for those on the outside looking in ahead of the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship:
· Calum Hill: 19.88 points
· Grant Forrest: 34.08 points
· Jeff Winther: 78.35 points
· Casey Jarvis: 91.06 points
· Francesco Laporta: 108.04 points
· Dylan Frittelli: 108.08 points
· Alejandro Del Rey: 117.41 points
· Marcel Siem: 119.61 points
· Brandon Stone: 120.05 points
· Jayden Schaper: 123.18 points
· Thomas Detry: 135.91 points
· Nicolai Højgaard: 148.02 points
· Shubhankar Sharma: 151.07 points
· Gavin Green: 152.65 points
· Richard Mansell: 152.76 points
· Matthew Baldwin: 161.34 points
· Alfredo Garcia-Heredia: 165.94 points
· David Micheluzzi: 166.58 points
· Joost Luiten: 168.29 points
· Adrien Saddier: 168.55 points
· Sean Crocker: 187.04 points
